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Mass Hysteria

Hysteria comes and goes like we’re  somehow bipolar.  It is an adjunct of the information our brain processes.  It shows up at the polls and in late night bar discussion.  Euphoria is so much more fun — even if it is processing flawed data too.  Were is Spock when we need him so badly?  How do we prove we are the rational being the text books describe?

The Australian reports that “UN scientists are set to deliver their darkest report yet on the impacts of climate change, pointing to a future stalked by floods, drought, conflict and economic damage if carbon emissions go untamed. A draft of their report, seen by the news organisation AFP, is part of a massive overview by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, likely to shape policies and climate talks for years to come. Scientists and government representatives will meet in Yokohama, Japan, from tomorrow to hammer out a 29-page summary. It will be unveiled with the full report on March 31. ‘We have a lot clearer picture of impacts and their consequences … including the implications for security,’ said Chris Field of the US’s Carnegie Institution, who headed the probe. The work comes six months after the first volume in the long-awaited Fifth Assessment Report declared scientists were more certain than ever that humans caused global warming. It predicted global temperatures would rise 0.3C-4.8C this century, adding to roughly 0.7C since the Industrial Revolution. Seas will creep up by 26cm-82cm by 2100. The draft warns costs will spiral with each additional degree, although it is hard to forecast by how much.”

Am I going to say the above is wrong?  Hardly!  Then I would be classed a “Climate Denier” and castigated far and wide.  But wait.  Doesn’t the scientific method demand rigor and examination to be scientific?  Are we to sacrifice reason to computer modeling?

In another time I did a lot of data modeling for corporations.   The formula required for that were simple in comparison.  It was still hard to get right.   There, it was pretty simple to debug.  It dealt with the nuts and bolts of a business that had a history that provided some expectation.   So, we’d rework it and find that it conformed better to the day-to-day results.

These models look out decades and centuries.   There is no validation/verification possible.   It is being done by “weathermen” whose day-to-day modeling is subject to often dramatic revision.  I could count widgets and determine true data-points along the way.

The local weathermen now report model views with regularity.  They show us multiple models that diverge over the next day result.   A recent front that moved through showed such a divergence with 6″ of snow from one and an inch from another.  And this was for a next day event.  If we can’t properly determine tomorrow, how can we rationally rely on these models one-hundred years out and dramatically alter our health and well being to accommodate it.?

What is clear is that the billions and trillions being directed at CO2 aren’t providing a cost-effective solution or much in the way of improvement.   We are being condemned for not doing enough when our wallets already cry, “Too much.”

We got to be the top dog on this planet by being adaptable.  We lacked fangs, blazing speed and so on.  Yet we claimed it all and molded it for our greater good.  Maybe there will be a bill coming due that will set us back but it won’t stop us.  We won’t stop molding our environment.  It is how many of us survived this winter.

I have no beef with science.  I’d have died on at least four occasions in the past without it.   I wouldn’t have had this quality of life without such changes.   What is going on is the Climate Change Gang is cursing the guy that discovered fire even while that guy is a big reason in how well we populate the planet.  Go figure.

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