This section has my views on various subjects. That and a bus token will get you on board the bus... It is more my own notepad than it is a set of real white papers.

Good Friday, 2002


Welcom, bienvineu, whatever to:
Krystalnacht 2002

Once upon a time, a beset nation turn to a strong leader.The leader wasn't wise but he was clever. He knew how to push the right buttons. And, over time, he managed to turn gentle, law abiding citizens into animals in the name of everything good. Yeah, that ones name was Adolph. His coming out party was Krystalnacht. Not all that many were killed that day. Damage was fairly superficial. Society still functioned. But, in letting it happen, gentle, law abiding citizens were switched to a new path--one that brought about unspeakable horror. He killed a lot of bad Jews and an exponentially greater number of good or innocent ones. We will never know what greatness might have come from those dead souls. And, he left a stigma on his nation that can never be expunged.

.Just how far from that tree are Arafat and Sharon? Just how far are the people they represent from donning their own, permanent though hidden, Sans Benito(1)? They are both righteous in their indignation of how their people are treated--just like Adolph. They both have singular and simple answers to complex questions--just like Adolph. To make that work they must create an enemy--a "Godless" enemy that seeks to undermine all the good of the [insert your ethnicity here] and "our truly good" peoples.--just like Adolph.

Looking at history most of us have little to point to with pride. We are at best mongrels--but mongrels are often better than the AKC variety. The only way bigotry can prosper is with the Superman syndrome--the uber mench. Today, many leaders are playing the uber card. And we are letting our bigotry tell us they are the righteous--just like Adolph could. If we honestly look at our ancestry or religion, we can see thing we can point to with pride and things that embarrass the hell out of us.

We are nations of law. At its best we come up with the Code of Hamurabi, the Magna Carta, the U. S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and the Ottoman courts. At our worst we use them to punish minorities and further oppress the already oppressed. The world has always walked a fine line between good and evil and often fails to recognize which side of the line is where they currently reside.

ISLAM is vilified today by many. Yet it is the same people that joyfully coexisted with others in Moorish Spain and throughout the Ottoman empire. Places of enlightenment in a dark age.

Jews were driven to the Diaspora and the results created a unique people that have been oppressed but risen above it. For every Shylock there are hundreds of the Altgeld of Chicago type--people who looked beyond themself and did what was right. As people as marred by the Holocaust as the perpetrators, they have a righteous Israel to shout, "Never again", even if that turns them into the type of person they abhor.

Christianity stand no better or worse. Every one of our good and great acts has an Inquisition corollary.

All these religions "of the book" have good laws that call for understanding and coexistence. And all of them have their darker side that can be used by zealots to justify anything.

The Middle East of today points out all the failures of humanity. We have tried to use "good laws" to right "bad things" and in doing so have created more damage than good. Along the way we have turned people into something new that shocks us in the historic perspective--as long as we ignore history.

Today we ignore the good and basic laws. We do that at the peril of all. We must acknowledge that we have all made mistakes and use good laws--written and unwritten--to leads us back to that narrower path.

Political solutions are not going to work. They have had almost 100 years to try and the failures from Balfour on are obvious. As long as both sides see themselves as the only correct answer we are doomed. The only solution is at the individual level. If the individual sees the wrong and doesn't support those wrongs then we have a chance to roll back the new Krystalnacht. It is the coming together of people to say, "This is wrong. And together we can right the wrong."

My personal feeling is that it won't happen if American Jewery continues to be embarrassed supporters of Israel. I use that term because many Americans--Jews and Gentile--were witless about the evils of the Third Reich. After the fact, it was hard to look at the world in the old ways and not be embarrassed. The results have been a dogmatic approach along the line of America's embarrassing "love or leave it" views of the past. To salve their consciences, American Jews have been strong and active supporters of Israel and without strings. It is time to add the strings. The change would be emotionally painful but it has one of the few outside voices that would be listened to outside political channels.

The sacrifice that can be made as a gesture of faith is the dismantling of the settlements. First, those settlements are illegal by international law. Second, they are the soap box of the zealots on both sides. Third, they are the one gesture that Israel can make that shows their solid search for a peaceful solution. It is a painful concession but the right thing to do.

There is a rallying point for this view. I would direct you to the Not in My Name website at . It has links to other websites that share their view. And, it details the other side of the issue.

One of the things we can all do at these special days is to pray. And my prayer is a prayer of part of my ancestry; the prayer of the Cherokee Indian Grey Eagle:

Oh, Great Spirit
Whose Voice I hear in the Winds, and Whose breath gives life to all the World
Hear me. I am Small and Weak.
I need Your Strength and Wisdom. Let me walk in beauty,and make my eyes ever behold the red sunset.
Make my hands respect the things I have made and my ears sharp to hear your voice.
Make me wise so that I may understand the things you have taught my people.
Let me learn the Lessons you have hidden in every leaf and rock.
I seek strength, not to be greater than my brother but to fight my greatest enemy--myself.
Make me always ready to come to you with clean hands and straight eyes.
So, when life fades,as the fading sunset, my spirit may come to you without shame.

And from the liturgy of my religion:


May the Lord Bless you and keep you.
May the Lord lift up his countenance unto you.
And give you Peace.

And a pointer to a longer prayer from the Jews--the Yom Kipper Confession which includes::


Why? Because I have not been true to myself. Because I have not nurtured
sufficiently the good in me. For there is good in me. 'The soul that You have given
me is pure!' There is that in me which condemns me when I do wrong and urges me
to do right, which holds up before me the ideal, and challenges me to reach toward it.
There is in me a spark of Your divinity.

And the most basic of Islamic tenants:


Asalaamu Alaikum
(Peace be upon you)

Yes, in everyone's history we can individually and collectively find something in which to be proud. And that is a commonality that rings true for any denomination or in any book. And it can be a basis for change. Terrifyingly, it may be all we have left for hope.

---------
(1) Sans Benito. It was the cloak forced on "heretics" by the Inquisition. The wearing of it placed them outside the protection of civilized society. It turned them from human to animal in the sight of others. I use it instead of the yellow Star of David because that is too recently painful for us all. And, it shows a commonality that transcends the issues at hand. It was never worn on purpose yet it seems we are witlesslywilling to inadvertently step beyond society's norms today. The Sans Benito was a dishonest cloth; the new version won't be.

SHALOM 10/13

I am not a Jew and I have never visited Israel. I am sure some of my views are distorted. If I am saying things that throws me open to criticism as a Goi then so be it.

One thing we can all agree on is that this is a real mess.

The Diaspora created a closeness that I cannot be a part of. It is a beautiful thing. It created an enlightened self-interest that extended to the people and, to their credit, all people. It forged a sensitive people that are unique on this earth. I believe religion really played a minor part as one catalyst in forging that uniqueness. Certainly that religion barely resembles the religion of the start. The dogma is far more diverse and subject to interpretation--as are all religions.

The questions I have is: How can such a people not identify with and fully understand the plight of the Palestinians? After seeing things like deeds containing a "no Jew" clause, how could you support that attitude in Israel? I could go on but I'm sure you see my point.

Today, the Knesset is a fractured body with too many fragments squabbling for their view. American government is locked into its path with the thought of political suicide for taking a view slightly different from current policy. The Palestinians have a weak semi-government with ineffectual leaders that cannot survive without the support of their bigots, too.

It would seem to me that the only group that can be effective here is American Jewry; who has, by-and-large, a moderate view. They support and finance the success of Israel. I suspect that the Israeli's consider that a given and their right. They may be correct. But, this is the one (only?) group that can exert the proper pressure to obtain a proper settlement-though God knows what that is.

Truly, you are the only group who can correct the acceptance of a man taking troops and standing with them at a flashpoint to destroy delicate peace negotiations. Just who was playing David and who Goliath?

Making the Bear case 9/20

Much of the market has been in a decline for almost two year. This was concealed by a limited group of strong sectors. It may be time for those sectors to adjust. The expansion was growth related and even after recent decline any metric shows these stocks are still overvalued. We've had other instances of this in the past and there has always been a day of atonement. That isn't New Economy; that is Old Reality!

The Fed has spoken out both sides of it's mouth for a long time. While "reining in" the economy with interest rate increases it has flooded the money supply from time to time. Greenspan has become a micro manager and that has never worked. The latest toy for the Fed has been the MZM (zero interest money lending); before that it all showed up in the Adjusted Monetary Supply in the name of Y2K, Asian Crisis, LTC. Volker didn't operate this way but his predecessor Burns is starting to look like Greenspan's hero. It was was a micromanaging, double-talking Burns that let Nixon lead him into a similar sorry set of policies that gave us 12% rates before it was all over.

We've never had a time that we didn't have to pay for a money supply glut. I don't see how the "new economy" can be immune to this. If you follow the scenario out it gives us a recession. Recessions lack momentum...duhh...and momentum has been the sponsor of this great market.

It appears to me that much of the decade long success relates to the closing of the cold war status that let defense spending saving become the catalyst for the productivity increase we've seen take place. It was those bombs and tanks that never got built that gave us the capital to be more productive. This is much like the times after WWII that lead us into the happy times that culminated in another energy crisis.

To try to defend the continuing prosperity view--which is my real long term outlook--I don't think the productivity gains are done. I think they are strong enough to even overcome an idiot (which isn't true yet) at the Fed helm--at least for a good while longer...

Energy problems will give us this mini-bear. It has to as short term pressure is placed on earning and disposable income. That makes alternative energy a fad again. I don't see it replacing oil in most of our lifetimes.

And, remember, this is becoming a global economy that has an almost unlimited labor pool. The U.S. is best position to take advantage of that--we have already! And that doesn't show up in the weekly labor statistics. That is the reason they are insignificant. I can see how we can't continue to take full advantage of that. 9/20

GTHR or...Nahh, Nahh, Nahh, told ya so, Nahh, Nahh


Ok, now that I'm done acting like a six year old. I will say that they were taken out and I made 43% on a full position. I guess that makes me happy. But, it leaves a lot of questions.

Even at that price the deal appears way too cheap. Yes, it is a 50% premium to the issue price but that was the only thing it was a serious premium to for much of it's short life. I bought at 9 and 10 so I can't complain but the stock seemed headed higher--way higher. Don't believe they were cash strapped. They were accumulating customers like gangbusters and major ones at that--AmExp, Xerox, etc.

Many investors aren't in as good a shape on this one as I am.

Lots of buying went on into this move. It just doesn't smell right. I don't have any proof and am not calling it anything close to illegal; but, it just doesn't smell right.

Ya got a smoke?

Ok, mea culpa time: I smoke; and, I'm cheap. The local tobacco store has always had cigarettes that are half the price of the brands. Right now I am smoking "Roger"--no I am not making that up. It is only available in boxs--not my normal choice. But, they sure taste like the high end cigarettes. The are made under license from Carolina Tobacco Co from Richmond, VA by a concern in Latvia--no I'm not making that up. I imagine CTC also bought up used boxing lines, ship them the tobacco, and are the real owners. Over the months I've bought cigarettes from Spain and beyond.

The tobacco biz has reacted to our legislation and courts. I have the feeling that more and more of these "licensing deals" will enter the marketplace as U.S companies try to divest themselves of liability. Jim Cramer likes tobacco and has made money on the long side. But, I have to feel that's a poor, long-term play. The Feds aren't going to let us smoke--just like they wouldn't let us drink. Business will find the loophole and fill a need. In doing so they will destroy an industry and add to the balance of trade deficit and create a whole new market.

So, tobacco's days as a U.S. monopoly--they got a premium world wide--are going to come to a close and the value of these companies will get fractured.

Do we have inflation?/

I would posit that we have massive deflation. But, I'm probably older than you. I remember in the 80's a client proudly showing me his "cheap" new electronic calculator. It was a desk size machine using nixi readouts. It added/subtracted/multiplied/divided. The alternative at the time was a Rube Goldberg mechanical. He paid around $500 for it. Today, I can get all that and more at Radio Shack for $9.95.

My grandfather could not afford or even have access to electricity. My father woried about leaving lights on. Today, I live in an area with a high cost provider and it is still cheap. Is that inflation? According to the Fed studies it is!

The first VCR I saw was over $1000. They are under $100 at Best Buy. Yet in that same timeframe, we've experienced "massive inflation" on the Fed charts because people buy 35-inch TVs instead of 19 inch and that cost a few bucks more than the 19's of a few years ago which was/is the base product.

You can extend this out. Computer are a laugh--today's computer would have taken your entire life's wages to buy not that long ago. We have things in our homes that our parents could never have afforded and we use them like it is normal. Today it is. Things are cheap. Your car may be 3x the old days but the gas mileage has also tripled and you don't need a tuneup every 10,000 miles. My first new car was under 2000. It had a radio. It was built to last 2 years. Does that really mean my new car today is really 8x or more in cost? Yup, according to the Fed...

The point is that inflation is a number that has little reference to real life and yet the Fed quotes all that gobbly-gook like it means something. What's relative?

Has MSFT moved to being an "Old Economy" stock?

Well, probably not but it does seem to have started to run out of its growth phase. It sure isn't a steel stock but I'm doubting it will see the growth that has typified it over the years. It is just a possibility that a spliting of this into components will revitalize it and make it a better company. Right now I wouldn't want it as a core holding 7/29/00

I will never be able to push a rope

There is the old saw about not being able to push a rope. At times that seems to be what I am trying to do. Big mistake. At times the market just won't move in the direction you are pushing. When that happens I need to calm down; raise cash; and either move toward the real market or wait for it to come back to me. Not doing so destroys capital. I may not prosper but I won't fail. And not failing is the real key to playing the market. Being there when it does move isn't as important as having the capital preserved at a later point where that can still be put to work for good results.

Ok, my opinion today is more bearish than bullish (6/11/00) and I can just as easily be wrong as right. The fatal error (pushing on the rope) would be to stay wrong. I oscillate like AC current these days. I am responding to trading range concepts on an emotional basis--more rope pushing. These are things I need to weed out of my trading; if I don't the failure (to my view) will be spectacularly distructive.

Filling Gaps and pattern failures

In the category of Urban legends is this term, All gaps are filled. Well, that is poppycock. One gap is the breakaway or breakout gap. By definition this is a gap that never fills; if it does, it is no longer a breakout gap. That points out another truth in charting. When we see a pattern on our charts we may be right; but, the pattern can resolve itself into another pattern. What was a head and shoulders top one day becomes a breakout consolidation the next. You have to believe in yourself but you also have to doubt yourself. I'm starting to sound like one of those PBS self-help idiots here so I'll quit.

When does an intermediate term player enter?

That gets pretty personal. Are you aggressive or do you want more safety? We have just had a big downturn that affect many stocks in a huge way. I am already back in the market fully. That's the aggressive approach. Here I'd like to outline a conservative approach that doesn't gamble as much capital and that still will capture any bull move that might come about.

Look, I cheat on this like a fool and sometimes I end up as one. The above is very conservative. I'm not. But, I get more conservative in markets like this than at other times. I am passing on plays that work out well and not regretting it. In another time, I'd be critical of my action. (

Today 6/7 saw a selloff in CEGE. I just knew it was taken down in a way that'd bring it right back. I was right but am glad I didn't add. Tomorrow, that could become a regret.)

Determining price goals is a fool's dream

Every analyst worth his salt seems pressed to come up with target prices. It can't be done. You can set goals based on measured moves; you can't set long term goals. The effort is to identify a trending sector. Then, select the strongest stocks in the sector. Then, see what happens. Often they will stall out before reaching a goal. Be flexible and ready to bail. Once the stock has started to move the goal has to be to protect profits not to sit stoically until the goal is in hand!

When technology starts it's recovery

there will be one major difference. In the past we were charting new territory, we didn't have the burden of history on our charts. Pick up your favorite beaten-down and you now see layers of overhead resistance. It is unlikely that we get a clear path back up. It will be filled with resistance level after resistance level. That translates to time and time lowers yield. Gone will be those outrageous annualized rates of return. Don't get me wrong; money will be made; it just isn't likely to be like before. And the weak sisters will fall by the resistance levels...

Base Building and learning to count to 4...

Stocks don't start upwards and never pause or stop. Even the rockets pause briefly along their route and "consolidate" for a bit. This is base building. The original base is often nearly impossible to see but it can be very lucrative. Right now (5/19/00) CHK appears to be in such a position. It has a very long base which gives lots of upside potential. We don't always find them this soon. Often we recognize their potential farther into the cycle. The thing is that many other are just now seeing the move for their first time also. On the next cycle/base, more see it; and so on. (8/11/00) It looks like that is just what has happened and the 4 step move is completing.

O'Neil tell us that these moves typically happen four times. By the fourth time, everybody has seen it and when everybody see something it is usually too late and often fails. In fact O'Neil's studies tell us that the fourth basing fails it's follow-through move 80% of the time and signals a pullback to below the previous base. So, count those bases and avoid being the last guy buying.

If you do nothing but search out these early birds, you can be a huge trading success. If you don't see them until too late, you become the fodder of the truly successful analyst. Remember the early bird...

Take a look at the DUSA chart. Count the bases. Yup, we ignore the blip in October, the breakout started in November and completed the fourth base (high) and declined. The first breakout wasn't a lot (~$2) and it then consolidated for a number of weeks--a strong pattern. Then did the other three moves and peaked.

In April 99, BED made a move off of it's descending base. The movement was swift and made--you guessed it--a four step move that topped out in Jun 99. Look at a chart of where it went from their. Classic O'Neil. At the moment it is working off a messy double bottom. Want another one? PETC in Mar99. The lists are littered with these kinds of move!

Liquidity 5/18

 

 This chart stolen from The Street--subscribe! It shows the peak in the money supply that was created by the Fed's worry about Y2K. It provided the liquidity to cause the Jan-Feb runup of epic proportions.

Now they've taken it down way down to levels not seen since early 99. When this happens, 90% of the time a recession results!!! Want to know why times are hard--look no further.

The Fed can do more things than manage rates!!!!!!

   This mini chart is the Composite from 1995 through today. Notice that they are very close to identical! The M2 money supply is a proxy for the Nasdaq. Greenspan and company built the world as we see it in the markets. If he keeps the money down, the democrats lose in the fall. Greenspan has a conservive bent. Watch the M2 and see how it plays out.

GTHR a fallen angel

The chart for this one is a typical--for the last few months--internet one. It has tanked. But, it is now starting to recover off a consolidation. I don't say it is a buy here but it may be one of the attractive internets going out. B2B has been decimated. And, I'm not surprised all that much. Look at it from a big company view. Do you pay some B2B operation to setup your buying? Maybe...for a while. Assume it works well. Now...do you share that savings with a third party or try to bring it in house and pocket those bucks yourself? Pretty obvious, you scalp and there goes another B2B client site. But, transportation is another matter. It is a total pain for most corporates. As a former corporate wonk, we had more ways to get an upgrade and cost the company money... A consolidator like GTHR can control all that. It may even lower costs in the process. I don't see companies being so anxious to bring travel in-house...

SoapBox: Million Mom March

Mothers are the traditional molders of young men. Mine did the best she could with me. I had good parents. I have never participated in a drive-by shooting and I have had guns since before my teens. Today, is the MMM and I would suggest they are trying to get the legislatures to legislate good motherhood. It doesn't work that way.

It seems society considers making laws a solution to the problems of this world. A law has never solved a problem. Laws only point out humanities failings. The first laws were 10 in number; every law since is just a subset. And we haven't done very well in crafting them; so we replicate--which only compounds our failure.

It is time for society to work on solving its problems in the traditional manner and placing the blame for failure not on the law but on ourselves..

What is value investing?

Easy answer is a low P/E relative to the sector's normal P/E. Interesting bit of info: Berkshire-Hathaway a.k.a Mr. Warren Buffet has a 53.7 P/E. So much for value. I don't think I'll buy a $55000 share anytime soon. If B-H deserves that P/E, maybe YHOO's P/E isn't that far out of line...

On measured moves 5/1

One of the principles of charting is the measured move. Lets Cover that a bit. A measured move can work in either directon. The idea is that stocks reach critical junctures. At these points we can have congestion, pullback, reversal--regardless, the trend is broken in some matter. The stock had been trending. And this doesn't require a solid channel. It can be jaggy or curved or whatever. Often it is hard to even see on a daily chart.

So we have moved from A to B and are now in some congestion. We would expect the B to C move to be approximately the same magnitude. If a to be is 100 to 150, we'd think the B to C is likely to take us to 200.

This happens quite often with charts. The warning here is that this system is only predictive as to the magnitude of the move. It does not say a trend will continue. It says that if it does you can expect a similar distance be traveled on the chart

Here is a scary example: The current Nasdaq Composite. (Weekly chart)
 

 The bottom of the measured move is the lower left corner--October 99. W can see it runs to the middle and pulls back This was at the first of the year. We remember the pullback that was there; we ran to the new high and then tanked. This completed the A-B-C pattern that we have just discussed.

Now the scary part. I said it can work in either direction. We are just at an A-B run down in the Nasdaq. Based on the measured move principle. If...big if... the market moves downward again, the measured move would take us to the area of 2200.

I am not saying this will happen. I am saying there is a big downside if it does. You don't want to ride that slide. If it happens there is no level of risk:reward that make being long acceptable at any time. Go back and look at the price of your stock in June-July 99; that is roughly what we are talking about.

It is now a bear market, right? 4/30

The real question is, since when? We've had a bear market for a long time. It was just propped up by technology. And with most of us investing in that sector we just haven't seen it. These are examples of just how bad things have been in the past month. While the S&P tech sector has only been down 20, the NDX (the Nasdaq 100) fell 30. And the rest of the Nasdaq Composite was down 40. The B2C stocks were down 45 and the B2B stocks were down 55. And the biotechs were down about 49%.

But the broad market had been in a long term bear from at least the middle of last year on. 79% of the market was below it's 200 day average. The market has broadened significantly during the "meltdown" and we may have a healthier market today than we've had in a year or so.

The key to this broad recovery is inflation. If you believe we have it then this is an unsustainable broad rally and technology is going to be our only savior as longs. If you believe, along with me, that inflation is a false scare, then we will have a broader, healthier rally and we can select stocks from areas that are depressed and just may see better returns in those long out-of-favor areas.

Look, the dollar is at an all time high. And, while commodities spiked, they are coming down. The labor portion of the cost of goods has tumbled--so much for wage inflation. The only inflation that is present that I can see is the money supply. The Fed ran it out of sight before Y2K and they couldn't rein it in overnight without dire results. Money gluts cause inflation. The Fed is the cause of any inflation that we have seen. Mr. Greenspan first created the dragon and now is out to slay it. I bet we see the Fed relaxing rates earlier than we can guess. That isn't to say Al still isn't up on his horse and still followed by Sancho Panza. It is just that his ride is getting toward the end.

I have been saying to look for the strong stocks in our favorite sectors and ride them in the recovery. If we get this broader market, we can do what was long called smart and for the last couple of years stupid; we can diversify. There are strong stocks with weak charts in the out of favor sectors. I think it is time to start looking for them. I am wondering just which ones of them can be benefited most by the Internet phenom. Ask yourself questions like: will Walmart be a better B2B play than Amazon? It is a real possibility.

Recoveries from Bear markets are known to take time. But, there are some areas that may be a bit ahead of our tech friends of the past. We need to look for old line stocks that are down and still have good P/E data that are building a base. These are the stocks we might be able to own while technology stocks trail by a bit. The caveat here is that technology has done its recovery from what would normally be considered a very weak base.

I feel (that and a nickel) that one of the big runs this year still has to be the biotechs. It is another no earnings to speak of sector that has a chart that looks like Mount Kilaminjaroo. It spiked like the worst of the day trader's loves. Yet I can name a sector that has such long term potential. The market has proven it is happy to buy potential. I continue to keep a number of Biotechs in my daily view and I will.

Interesting times! 4/29

George Soros is saying Uncle. His fund is far from broke. He is anything but a Long Term Capital. He'd bet the farm and was often right--BIG TIME RIGHT. This time, this market they got it wrong. So he is pulling the plug. He is going from being the grand speculator of our age to a value investor.

I don't feel quite as bad about my stupidity of recent months. I tanked too. Don't get me wrong; I am up for the year. But, a while back I was UP FOR THE YEAR. I was thinking winter place in the Bahamas.

The thing that George's highly skilled professionals had in common with me was their bet the farm mentality that works well in a major bull market. What it ignores is preservation of capital. And, for every investor, that has to be the major objective.

What I find interesting in my trading is that I actually called the top. I mean to the day. I had a friend over and told him this has to be it. But, like Soros' generals I thought the drop was a simple correction. I thought we'd make it into spring pretty much intact. And, I, too, bet the farm on it.

Unlike a lot of folks, I don't margin. But my style is/was to stay fully invested and to the long side. I can't call shorts--it is a specialist's game. So, my hedging is using things like USPIX or URPIX as macro hedges. And, I did use them during the period but they didn't offset my long losses.

We have been through exciting times. Anybody has be able to make money in this market. I don't know if that continues. I hope it does. It very well may not.

Develop your alternatives! Don't stick with a strategy that is no longer working. My trades yesterday are an example. I sold stock that it hurt me to sell. It is never wrong to take a profit; it is never wrong to leave something on the table for the next guy. The idea is to make a profit not the profit.

What I use every day:

The quote tracker is free, adware. The data is free if you register.

The award winning charting software comes on a CD. You can review data through the date on the CD and play with it to your hearts content.

I like several of the reporters: Helene for market views and Gary for charting and, of course, Cramer for BS and soothing words.

How are computers selling? 4/26

MS forcast lower sales and caused the market to tank. Intel see strong sales ahead. How can this be? Well, they can both be right. The unanswered question is: Is the slowdown W98, W2K, or both?

A slowdown in W98 affect the boxmakers and their suppliers. It signals component vendor slowdowns and we've had that happen--as far as the market goes.

If the slowdown was W2K then the slowdown is MS specific with corporate accounts not upgrading as MS had forcast. That only affects MS.

My best guess is that it is W2K specific and that the selloff in techs was overdone.

Protoemics 4/24

As genomics is the study of gene structure and function as it relates to the treatment of disease, proteomics takes this one step further. Proteomics is the discovery, function analysis, and exploitation of human proteins for the diagnosis and treatment of disease. Proteomics will reveal more about the underlying causes of diseases such as cancer and heart disease than genomics ever will. DNA AGEN SGMO CIPH ACLA

Microsoft 4/24

This is written as MSFT is tanking. The earnings and forecast were weak and Justice is rattling sabers...saying a breakup is the proper solution. Steve Ballmer is quoted saying a breakup would be dire for shareholders.

Over the short term, I think Balmer overstates the problem. The stock would probably rally on any resolution. Over the long-term he is right on. Softy will slowly lose all its advantage and become just another stock. My basis for this is that their "leadership" in "cutting edge" technology is based on the advantage the operating system has contributed. That's the very point the legal action addresses. Rather than being the only game in town, Softy will become a competitor on a level playing field. Lotus and even Word Perfect have the opportunity to begin reversing the advantage that MS held.

I realize many will disagree with my conclusion. There is a huge left/right wing dichotomy between end users everywhere. I am trying to take the middle road here but admit that I have held minimal admiration for MS over the years.

MS product are buggy and far from leading edge. They are mediocre product that are bloated and do little to serve the average user. Most of their competition design toward similar goals. Nobody truly addresses useful standards. Instead the add complexity. MS can and will successfully compete in that environment but won't do it with the success the enjoyed in the past.

Elian (it won't be all stocks stocks stocks) 4/23

Thomas Payne is noted for his Revolutionary treatise "Commonsense" and that seems to be the only attention to the word that exists inside the beltway.

A young boy became the focus of governments. The problem was a family problem. Dysfunctional family expertise was not written into the Constitution--one of wiser decisions of our founding fathers. Governments are, rightfully, the court of last resort in family matters. Government needs to be concerned with higher matters on the whole. It is an institution of consensus. Families never reach consensus--even in the best of times.

The first obvious fact in this matter was pointed out, ad nauseum, by the media: It was a "win-win" situation for the Castro government.

The next obvious fact is that the courts do poorly making decisions best left to families.

The fact that goes ignored is that the parties in this matter were Catholics. Churches address family situations. They don't always get it perfect but they are the only institution that has been able to historically address such problems.

The executive branch seems to have approached the matter in playground manner. They drew lines in the sand and kept daring the other guy to cross. Rather than recognize the limitations of government they seem to have gloried in the attention. At no time was thought directed toward solving the problem. Rather, they attempted to profit from the press attention and create a spin that benefited the executive.

The legislative branch played the ostrich. Individuals did their press releases to give the right spin to their constituents. Thankfully they let it go at that. At no time did they provide any attempt at a solution.

The courts were again the last resort. And rather than acknowledge their unsuitability the courts mostly decided to attempt a solution based upon law. The law doesn't have a mandate for resolution outside strict limitations. And the problem failed to fall within those limits. Family courts have long made use of religious assistance in family matters. Families have been referred to the clergy for assistance in resolving family dysfunctionality. Such referrals are historically as successful as any other solution.

At no time was common sense applied to the problem. At no time were historic standards applied to the problem. The only reasonable chance for an equitable solution seems to have been the Catholic Church. (I am a Lutheran.) The church could have provided serious counseling to the family and possibly resolved the situation.

We--our Government--never even tried such a traditional approach. Instead they insisted on making it a government against government contest that nobody could win.

I must conclude that not only where the obvious solutions ignored but that the all parties operated on selfish criteria that contributed to the final failure.